Home > Android, aPPLE, HTC, iPhone, News, Nokia, Photos, Rant > Nokia can’t compete in the High end -REALLY?!?!?

Nokia can’t compete in the High end -REALLY?!?!?

Tomi Ahonen the respected Mobile industry today posted on Twitter this very interesting graph that tech journalists seem to miss on purpose so they can report frankly diss Nokia or they are not doing their job properly. And just to make sure THIS is the smartphone market share not the supposedly ‘dumphone’ market, note Nokia gained while Apple LOST market share

Now people will probably counter argue and say well Nokia’s margins are low, well let me tell you why, if you have been paying attention to Nokia’s online store for the whole FIRST YEAR they have had A LOT of SALES and I MEAN A LOT of sales you were able to get Nokia N900’s for £400 or a N97 mini for £299 there were some real bargains. Another reason is the boring smartphone line up Nokia has had I mean can you still believe that the N97 is STILL the flagship device for Nokia (yeah yeah I know the N8 is coming)

Nokia have weathered the storm well with some criticisms I have got to admit but they are perfectly placed to show the tech world what they can do in the second half of the year starting with the N8 and Nokia World in september cannot wait 🙂

graph via Reuters


Categories: Android, aPPLE, HTC, iPhone, News, Nokia, Photos, Rant
  1. Keith
    July 23, 2010 at 11:18 pm

    Lolz, yeah, Nokia is wayyyy ahead of others. And now that Symbian^3, Symbian^4 and MeeGo are just around the corner, I would predict a HUGE boost in the sales. Also, They said that Apple has taken over RIM. I dont think so!
    Go Nokia!

  2. Roger Johnson
    July 23, 2010 at 11:24 pm

    Well done Nokia, nice to see facts for a change!

  3. mj
    July 23, 2010 at 11:28 pm

    There needs to be a greater awarness of these sort of trends in the more main stream (read US) blogs. It is always doom and gloom with Nokia!

    Can’t wait till Nokia World!!

    Are you guys lucky enough to go?

    • John Wiegand-forson
      July 24, 2010 at 8:31 pm

      heheh we would love to go but we haven’t been contacted. I asked Jay about it and he said the blog isn’t that big yet like the traditional media sites and its ludicrously expensive to go without some sort of a media pass, shame though wouldn’t be trouble at all considering its in London 🙂

      • mj
        July 24, 2010 at 10:06 pm

        well, it is 550GBP with THE discount!! yeah, it makes it easy this year with it being here. Hope you guys go, and if there is a spare pass 😉

        • John Wiegand-forson
          July 25, 2010 at 6:53 pm

          Wouldn’t mind going only 1 hour 30 train ride to London from where I am, and visit regularly anyway and I come home from holiday just before it beings 🙂

      • July 24, 2010 at 10:52 pm

        If you’re free (or any of the other guys) we’ll need someone on the blog front to update as things happen (it’s extremely difficult to blog on location as so much info, first hand media to obtain).

        Nothing confirmed – if not, I wouldn’t mind covering from desk side 😀

        • mj
          July 25, 2010 at 12:38 pm

          Just get back to London a few days before Nokia World. Happy to help!

    • July 24, 2010 at 10:48 pm

      hehe, maybe ^_^_^ Details in a couple of weeks maybe.

  4. webby
    July 24, 2010 at 12:23 am

    The fact that Nokia has done this with the N97 still being the flagship (ignoring the N900) is really very impressive. They have weathered the storm and as Keith said above, with Symbian^3+4, MeeGo, the N8 and N9 coming soon Nokia will surely be in fine health in 2011 and beyond.

    I’m guessing the reason for Apple’s decline in sales is down to the wait for the iphone 4. I expect them to get somewhere closer to 20% in the next couple of Qs, with Nokia’s maybe coming down a little bit. It’s a real shame the N8 isn’t quite ready to go on sale just now because Nokia could’ve really taken advantage of this antenna debacle.

    • JFH
      July 25, 2010 at 6:07 pm

      Wanna bet iOS has peaked in marketshare?

      • George
        July 25, 2010 at 6:19 pm

        JFH :
        Wanna bet iOS has peaked in marketshare?

        If you look at Macbook sales over the years I think that gives you a frame of reference for what they look to do. They don’t care about dominating marketshare per se. They care about their core brand and margins. If iPhone.next declines in unit volume they’re certainly not going to let it go without a fight.

        If they can continue to increase unit volume and margin I don’t think they care what marketshare is. That strategy may not be right for Nokia but is right for Apple.

        • JFH
          July 25, 2010 at 7:16 pm

          I am responding to his assertion that iOS marketshare will hit 20%, which will not happen unless we see a Iphone mini or nano soon. I am not sure why you think the stuff you wrote relates to that.

          • George
            July 25, 2010 at 9:47 pm

            Perspective.

            There are no indicators that unit volume is going to decrease in the near future for this product or the next. Until that happens they won’t create the budget version. That’s what happened with the iPod, they waited until they knew iPod unit volume was no longer sustainable.

            The fact that their numbers may stay the same or decrease is irrelevant in this discussion because all this basically means is that the industry is selling cheaper smartphones faster than they can sell high-end smartphones. Is that really surprising or significant?

            While your indicator is interesting it is ultimately not relevant when trying to really understand performance of Nokia in the high end.

            It’s nice marketing though.

      • webby
        July 25, 2010 at 10:17 pm

        I didn’t say it will hit 20%, but if the peak is about 17% (just looking at the graph) I certainly think it will get to around that just because a shitload of iphone 4s have been sold.

        • JFH
          July 25, 2010 at 10:42 pm

          No, the lowered market share, 14% from 17% earlier is including the shitload of pre orders and big weekend.

          What is not in these numbers is the antennagate effect. It is interesting to see if that has any influence on sales in Q3.

          • webby
            July 26, 2010 at 12:20 am

            I see, I didn’t know it included the first weekend. I was also basing my prediction on the rather large jump in share in q3 last year.

            I doubt this antenna crap is going to have much of an effect. Sheep will be sheep, and the less geeky people I’ve come across still aspire to own one as if it is the be all and end all of mobile phones. I’ve grown very tired of explaining how it’s not.

  5. José Xavier
    July 24, 2010 at 12:27 am

    If engadget or gizmodo post this all the apple fan-boys will suicide :p

    • jeez
      July 24, 2010 at 9:39 am

      Everyone try tipping them. I’d love to see how Engadget can spin Nokia’s expanding share into something negative. LOL =D

  6. Yougo
    July 24, 2010 at 12:58 am

    I wish nokia go up to 50% in this q4.

    • Keith
      July 24, 2010 at 3:21 am

      that would prolly happen in a couple years. Many S^4 and MeeGo devices ould be out by then and Nokia would’ve grown its network in US as they bought Motorola Wireless network

  7. N#O#R#U#L#E#S
    July 24, 2010 at 1:11 am

    Nokia did only 2 errors in 2008 and 2009 i mean the under powerfull n96 and n97 after…from this year thanks to symbian 3 and N8 off course (and S4/MEEGO later..) nokia shall return the queen of the hi-end smartphone market

  8. Yougo
    July 24, 2010 at 4:49 am

    Nokia phone without 3d hardware accelator are in mid range, nokia phones with that gpu are the high end

    n95, n82, e90, n900,n8.meego

  9. IMarius
    July 24, 2010 at 4:58 am

    Nokia world should really be something this year, if Nokia can really up their game then hopefully some strong sales of the N8 and some top Meego phones and maybe even bringing the next Nokia world after that to america.
    It will get harder and harder for other tech blogs to say Nokia are irrelevant, or who knows maybe they will keep living in denial.

  10. Jim
    July 24, 2010 at 5:13 am

    The market share was increased because they lowered the price. They didn’t released any new products and the current ones are old compared with the competition. they loose brand power : http://www.interbrand.com/best_global_brands.aspx and this is a main concern. we all now that brand boost sales, and also make a nice profit because you can set the price a little higher.

    I hope that S3 will not be so frustrating in terms of response. and meego will make some boom.( i didn’t see the widgets yet)

  11. Yougo
    July 24, 2010 at 5:57 am

    Nokia should release n8 before nokia world meego phone announcement.

    The world need a nokia touch symbian phone with gpu in it!

  12. George
    July 24, 2010 at 6:05 am

    I’ve been a Nokia user for 14 years and own the N900. You guys are delusional. I left this same comment on Tomi’s blog and I’ll leave it here. DON’T believe the numbers. They’re true, but they’re based on an antiquated notion of smartphone.

    Redefine smartphone to MAEMO/MEEGO vs WebOS vs Android vs IOS. Then ask again what is marketshare of Nokia, Google, Palm and Apple and we get a very different story.

    Can anyone really tell me that the N97 and previous “smartphone” generations are on par with iOS and Android. Really!

    It’s true not many people use my definition as the true definition when counting numbers but I’ll bet you dollars and cents that when analysts think of modern smartphones, they’re thinking about phones with these OS definitions or something of that ilk.

    The older Nokias had their day. GREAT! Don’t mistake the past for the future. See the market for what it really is and understand how behind Nokia is. That is the ONLY way Nokia will improve and rebound.

    Please, don’t play a mindgames with yourself trying to convince yourself that everything’s OK. Why is it that Apple’s cellphone prices rarely change? Because people still demand it and will buy it. Why does Nokia’s phone prices drop so quickly? Again, its demand.

    Please I urge you, I really like NOKIA. Don’t drink your own cool-aid. Realize that there is a problem and address it with urgency and conviction. Placating yourself and telling yourself that you’re still numero UNO when Apple can practically buy Nokia TWICE over with the cash it has on hand is NOT a pretty picture. For the good of Nokia and its customers, don’t believe the HYPE.

    • GordonH
      July 24, 2010 at 7:37 am

      Well said… Many analyst/investors see Nokia making too many mistakes for the past 2 years. Nokia was out of touch with the hardware requirements of the market and a lot of bugs in it’s many software solutions gave Symbian a bad name.
      Presently many Nokia fans and loyalist are making delusional excuses that the mistakes made were due to the transition period.
      The N8,Meego and Nokia’s Ovi looks like Nokia is picking up but in no way does it cover for 2-3 years of poor management and software coding.

    • JFH
      July 24, 2010 at 12:26 pm

      Seems like you are completely missing the point here.

      We know that market share is not all premium devices.
      We know the UI in Symbian, at least untill S^3 or S^4 come, is not as polished.
      We also know Nokia is too slow.

      However, in this position, what better way to get through this rough time than to keep people using your brand? I for one think it is a brilliant idea to increase market share and thin margins in this time. You seem to miss, that outside of the fact that it is more expensive to get people back into the Nokia camp than to keep them this way, its is also a competitive move. Forget about Apple for a second. They are unique in this regard, in the way they are able to command a premium, and do so for all of their devices. Nokia should be compared to Sammy or LG or SE. They are all struggling heavily to deal with Nokia in the mid and low range. They are rarely profitable. For all the banter about Samsung selling more dumbphones in the EU than Nokia, they sell 300k smartphones a quarter. Nokia sells over 5 million. So this price push down, keeps market share in a difficult time, and it makes it very hard to compete with Nokia in the mid and low end. How are you selling glorified dumbphones when for the same price Nokia is selling a fully functional Smartphone?

      Now onto what constitutes a smartphone. Lets look at that from two angles. Users, and Investors.

      As a user, I agree, that in high end touch devices, Nokia must do better. I would like Symbian to look as awesome as Maemo. Maemo proves Nokia can do it, and I expect it in S^3 S^4 and MeeGo.

      As an investor, I prefer to look at smartphones in a price stratified way. We clearly see that Nokia is lacking in the 475+ range (Eur). As an investor that is what I care about. Profit per unit, number of units, and the expected services revenue from those units. (Another reasons to try and “flood” the market now with cheaper devices). But, if we look at those price ranges, we see Nokia is killing the competition in the middle ground, its the only real competition Blackberry has in portrait qwerty, etc.

      Now, analysts and investors dont expect Nokia to be able to raise ASP anytime soon, and that margins will stay slim. They “see” Nokia is dropping prices which leads to a disaster. What is actually happening though is that the mix of products sold is shifting to the cheaper models, as they are more capable than before. This will continue to put pressure on ASP as long as the new all star line up is not shown. So, think of it as Nokia making room for new devices in the higher price points. Analysts and investors, in general, have a poor feel for the play that Nokia is making, and long term strategy in general. Its all now now now, cashflow now, profits now.

      So, what I am saying is, Nokia is supremely smart about this. They need to speed up high end model development, but that is about it.

      Also, Apple has 40 Billion in cash, Nokia is worth 30 to 50 Billion, over the last months. And you conveniently forget Nokia is sitting on about 10 Billion in cash itself. So, Apple cant even buy Nokia once. (With cash that is)

      And I dont understand all the Apple focus. Who gives a flying fuck about Apple? Investors are happy, but what do I care? They have made many poor choices in the last months, and I really think Apple is not Nokia’s problem anymore. Also, look at the actual innovation in iPhone. They worked very long and very hard to make something that was good. They literally had a few years headstart. Since then, what exactly has been improved? Zip. Dick all. And you know what. They cant. If they move away from icon grids they scare their customers. Funnily enough, what has kept Nokia from changing S60 for so long, is going to haunt Apple.

      Nokia should focus on Android & Bada. Apple is very 2009 and utterly irrelevant in this discussion. We only make note of Apple’s stellar profits and its position as a luxury brand more than an electronics brand.

      Nokia should make sure MeeGo & S^4 is 2011. They are currently undertaking their largest software project ever. They know full well what they need to do. Its just taking a tad too long.

      I would like you to follow your own advice. don’t believe the HYPE.

      • George
        July 24, 2010 at 5:34 pm

        Oops. Response got filed further down.

    • John Wiegand-forson
      July 24, 2010 at 8:36 pm

      First of Symbian IS a Smartphone OS analysts don’t see that because of its UI and partly being hypnotised by King Steve
      Secondly call me crazy but the Nokia N97 and N900 are on par with android and iOS the thing that lets it down is the poor UI and dismal RAM performance on the N97 especially the N900 lacked any support after its launch

  13. Keith
    July 24, 2010 at 6:23 am

    I know. but the past 2-3 years were just a transitional stage for nokia. they just had to keep making some phones to stay in the competition. Meanwhile, they worked on Symbian^3, 4 and MeeGo. It was their strategy. They KNOW that their current “smartphones” arent that great compared to other android and iphone. THATS WHY they are working on MeeGo and S^3/4. And I think its a goid move. They will make the MeeGo for the high-end mass market to dominate that and Symbian^3/4 to secure their reign in the mid-end & low-end market.

    • George
      July 24, 2010 at 8:03 am

      Transitional stage? I say, they fell asleep at the wheel. What have they worked on in the last 2 years?

      Nokia: S60 (multiple variants), Symbian ^3, Symbian ^4, Maemo, Harmattan, MeeGo.

      Some of these are serial but many are in parallel. S60 hasn’t gone away. Symbian ^3 and ^4 are staggered but seemingly in parallel. Maemo and Harmattan were kinda serial but there was no backwards compatibility and there’s some forward compatibility of Harmattan to MeeGo but that’s only if you count QT and if you do Symbian ^3/^4 are also compatible. My point is, its CONFUSING, No?

      Let’s see competitors:

      Apple, iOS, iOS 2, iOS 3 and iOS 4. It was only now in iOS 4 where the FIRST gen iPhones did NOT get an upgrade. Before that EVERY phone was up to iOS 3. Not bad.

      Google: Android 1.0, 1.5, 1.6, 2.1, 2.2. Is it taking some time for manufacturers to migrate from one to the next? Yes, but at least its linear.

      If you take budget OSes out of it, and just take MAEMO / Harmattan / MeeGo vs Apple and Google you’re still in a situation where Nokia can’t pick an OS and get it rock solid before starting over. Harmattan wasn’t even released but it was superceded by MEEGO. Yes, I know Harmattan is going to be called MEEGO, but that’s just a name and not really MEEGO proper.

      DON’T believe the HYPE!!!!! NOKIA had arguably the LEAD but the squandered it thinking. We’re so far ahead, what does Apple know about phones? The N97 has more checkmarks than the iPhone, it must be better. Ask that to anyone that is up with technology and they will laugh their heads off. The N97 was a joke and the N8 is passable by today’s standards though I admit, they have a few nice things, but nice things don’t count when no one cares anymore about your brand.

      They COULD have and they SHOULD have pushed the envelope, BUT THEY STOPPED INNOVATING and just watched on the sidelines. Alas, the hare was overconfident, decided to take a nap and now it seems that the tortoise not only has the lead but has turned itself into a cheetah. Not only can the cheetah beat the hare in the race, it can eat it whole without even trying. The question is if the hare will continue to dwell on fast he was compared to the tortoise before it became the cheetah or will it transform it self too so that he can put up a good fight. Only time will tell.

      • JFH
        July 24, 2010 at 12:33 pm

        Will you please, for the love of Christ, stop spreading FUD about Symbian being a budget OS.

        Will you please, next time you take the time to post something, think it through first.

        Transitional means, developing services. Both hardware and software did not get the attention it needed. Its a matter of strategy, not a lack of focus or falling asleep at the wheel as you like to put it.

        What exactly do you think is prompting all makers, outside of Apple & Nokia, to use Android? They have no choice! Why do you think both Nokia & Samsung want to have an OS that is not Android? It is the best play for the future.

        About the phone upgrades, your reasoning is hilarious. You should compare a single device to a single device, not a single device to a product portfolio. And those updates you speak of, that change the version number, how is that different from lets say, Pr 1.2 on the N900?

        • July 24, 2010 at 4:35 pm

          In fact, I would argue that the Symbian OS is, in fact, far more efficient than *NIX OSes.

          Knowing some of the merits of EKA2 (the Symbian Kernel, which was written from the ground up, for embedded systems), to me, it is not a surprise, that the 1200mAH battery in N8, has a reported 3G talktime of nearly 6 hours. Competing platforms are far more demanding on the battery. All this, is not at the cost of computing complexity either. However, lets wait for the N8 to be launched before a more complete comparison can be made.

          • George
            July 24, 2010 at 5:42 pm

            However, lets wait for the N8 to be launched before a more complete comparison can be made.

            I understand what you’re saying, but this post is about what IS not what WILL BE. What IS is bleak for Nokia in the high-end. I hope the N8 and N900 follow-on are successful, but if you want to go that route, should I also throw in iPhone 5? So let’s stick to FACTS. S60 based phones and Maemo vs the iPhone. In the high-end who’s the winner.

        • George
          July 24, 2010 at 5:39 pm

          Let’s be consistent. Marketshare is about current OSes. You said yourself not all Symbian is high-end. We’ll see if S^3 and S^4 is as good as they say it is.

          Haha. Yes, strategy, their strategy was to fall behind. What services are there that they seemed to spend so much energy on?

          The original iPhone was upgraded to iPhone iOS 1, iOS 2 and iOS 3 (including minor updates in between). The N900 gets minor updates and won’t get official Harmattan or MeeGo. How’s that as a comparison for you?

          • JFH
            July 24, 2010 at 7:56 pm

            Yes, I am pretty sure Nokia top guys sat in a room and said, lets fall behind, this should be our strategy.

          • George
            July 24, 2010 at 8:36 pm

            JFH :
            Yes, I am pretty sure Nokia top guys sat in a room and said, lets fall behind, this should be our strategy.

            Well, they chose NOT to INNOVATE and not push the envelope. They chose to stay the course and didn’t realize that they’d fall behind.

      • John Wiegand-forson
        July 24, 2010 at 8:38 pm

        What is it with people and Symbian not being a smartphone OS it IS.
        Symbian does exactly what other smartphone OS’s do which is
        1.Let people download and use apps
        2.Browse on the web
        3.Send and receive e-mail also exchange mail
        4.Make phone calls
        5.Sync contacts, mail and calendar with the cloud with variety of services
        6. remotely wipe data
        and other things just because Americans think that a Smartphones has to have a touch screen an app store with 200,000 fart apps, made by either Google or Apple and a CEO that likes to give out false information well then I guess Symbian isn’t.

        • George
          July 24, 2010 at 9:38 pm

          The conversation here is High End Smartphone. Do you really think that an S60 platform is high end? Even Nokia has conceded that S^3 is non-premium and thus not high end.

          Would you disagree with them?

          • John Wiegand-forson
            July 24, 2010 at 9:51 pm

            Symbian S60 is high, end just because it is used in a wide variety of lower end devices doesn’t meant it is not High end. If Apple or Google put their OS’s on lower end devices they would be awful why is iOS 4 not available on the first gen iPhone and on iPhone which lacks some of the major features have you tried those cheap LG android or Samasung phone’s they all suffer the same problem S60 has on lower end smartphones, low memory, lag, unresponsiveness and other problems. Look every manufacturer has problems with high end software not working on lower end devices(no pun intended BTW :-)).

          • George
            July 24, 2010 at 10:51 pm

            The fact that there are 3 major versions of iOS available for the iPhone speaks volumes. Nokia willing to step up to that and do the same? Yes, I’m an N900 user.

            It think that its hard to ignore that this market is shifting and Nokia has been slow to respond.

            The numbers are not indicative of the predicament Nokia is in. If you look at these numbers the outlook is rosy and they dominate. They may sell more because they’re cheaper and Apple simply don’t have the worldwide reach of Nokia but looking objectively at the competition, don’t be serious that you’d put up the N97 to compete with the likes of the Evo 4G, Droid X, iPhone and slew of other high end phones.

            Really do you think the N97 competes at that level? Ignore the charts and the numbers. From what you know and believe in your heart of hearts, can the N97 play with the big boys. I think we both know the answer to that.

  14. George
    July 24, 2010 at 5:31 pm

    JFH :
    Seems like you are completely missing the point here.
    We know that market share is not all premium devices.

    Great you agree with me then. The title of this post is whether or not Nokia can compete in the high end. By your own admission they are not currently competitive. Glad we agree.

    We know the UI in Symbian, at least untill S^3 or S^4 come, is not as polished.
    We also know Nokia is too slow.

    Being in the lead and falling behind in innovation is different than starting from the back and working your way forward.

    However, in this position, what better way to get through this rough time than to keep people using your brand?

    Look you take what you can get but the REALITY is they are not competitive in the HIGH end which is the point of this post. Read the title! You have to bring up your margin if you want to be competitive. All anyone has to do is drop their prices to compete in the low end. It’s not a good battle to have.

    Forget about Apple for a second. They are unique in this regard, in the way they are able to command a premium, and do so for all of their devices.

    It is sad we’re no longer in the same league.

    Nokia should be compared to Sammy or LG or SE. They are all struggling heavily to deal with Nokia in the mid and low range.

    Thanks for agreeing again. I only harp on this point because this is the point of the post. I think you get it now. It’s great that Nokia is competitive in the mid to low range. It’s WONDERfUL! I just hate it when Nokia cool-aid drinking folks think they’re still in the high-end when they’re not.

    They are rarely profitable. For all the banter about Samsung selling more dumbphones in the EU than Nokia, they sell 300k smartphones a quarter. Nokia sells over 5 million.

    We can throw millions of units around and pretend they’re great but I’d rather be Apple, sell millions and earn BILLIONS. That’s what happens when you’re competitive in the high end. Really, I’ll stop beating the dead horse when I think people get it.

    Now onto what constitutes a smartphone. Lets look at that from two angles. Users, and Investors…

    Nice try, slice it and dice it any way you like but high end smartphones today is what I described. Go by OS and you know who the players are. Anyone else is a pretender. Mid to low as you mentioned.

    Also, Apple has 40 Billion in cash, Nokia is worth 30 to 50 Billion, over the last months. And you conveniently forget Nokia is sitting on about 10 Billion in cash itself. So, Apple cant even buy Nokia once. (With cash that is)

    OK, twice was a bit of a stretch. Nokia’s marketcap is $33B. Tack on the $10B and you have about what Apple has in cash.

    And I dont understand all the Apple focus. Who gives a flying fuck about Apple? Investors are happy, but what do I care?

    Yeah, who cares about the most profitable smartphone company right now, the market leader, the one who sets the trends.

    They have made many poor choices in the last months, and I really think Apple is not Nokia’s problem anymore.

    Are you even paying attention? They made HUGE mistakes AND STILL they’re selling every phone they can make as soon as it leaves the manufacturing floor!!! Are insane? You think they can be ignored?

    Also, look at the actual innovation in iPhone. They worked very long and very hard to make something that was good. They literally had a few years headstart.

    AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    This is why I hate Nokia apologizers. I’ll step through this without my brain exploding. In Tomi’s post he talks specifically about how GREAT Nokia is how they had more features than Apple except 1 or 2. That the N97 is better than the iPhone and etc etc. How CAN you POSSIBLY say that Apple had a head start when Nokia was CLEARLY the market leader CLEARLY the one setting trends before Apple. They had cut and paste and multi-tasking and a store and where are they now? Don’t pretend like Nokia is this little underdog that’s being beaten up by Apple and they’re just catching up. They’re were the 500lb gorilla and now they’re the chimp or chump.

    Apple didn’t have a head start they JUMPED OVER Nokia, left them in the dust and Nokia then spun their wheels for 2+ years and now FINALLY have a strategy and while Apple is earning Billions Nokia sits around waiting for that next OS to make a dent. Yeah, wait ’til 2011, that’ll be the year. That’s what Nokia’s been saying for what, 2 yeas now?

    Funnily enough, what has kept Nokia from changing S60 for so long, is going to haunt Apple.

    All the way to the bank.

    Nokia should focus on Android & Bada.

    Bada, really. Are Nokia’s sights so low now that they are picking fights with Bada? That’s beyond sad.

    Apple is very 2009 and utterly irrelevant in this discussion.

    Yeah, the most profitable smartphone that they can’t make fast enough is so 2009. What as I thinking. Thanks for helping me see the light /sarcasm

    We only make note of Apple’s stellar profits and its position as a luxury brand more than an electronics brand.

    Yeah, and the only reason why we are discussing it is because that’s the point of this post.

    Nokia should make sure MeeGo & S^4 is 2011. They are currently undertaking their largest software project ever. They know full well what they need to do. Its just taking a tad too long.

    A tad too long is adding 2 months to 1.2. Falling behind is not having a strategy for 2 years while Apple at your lunch.

    I would like you to follow your own advice. don’t believe the HYPE.

    Profit in the Billions. How many Billion will Nokia make this year?

    • JFH
      July 24, 2010 at 9:10 pm

      Great you agree with me then. The title of this post is whether or not Nokia can compete in the high end. By your own admission they are not currently competitive. Glad we agree.

      > The theme here is you missing the point. The graph indeed does not prove Nokia is currently competitive. Their current line up is not, in the high end. I am not defending the article title here, I am disagreeing with your reasoning.

      Being in the lead and falling behind in innovation is different than starting from the back and working your way forward.

      > You didn’t get this one, but ill answer this in a later response.

      Look you take what you can get but the REALITY is they are not competitive in the HIGH end which is the point of this post. Read the title! You have to bring up your margin if you want to be competitive. All anyone has to do is drop their prices to compete in the low end. It’s not a good battle to have.

      > If it’s the only thing on the horizon, dropping prices to keep share is a bad idea. If you try to keep marketshare, so your brand is still out there in the mind of consumers, which makes it easier to sell higher margin devices later on, it’s a good idea. As a consumer I don’t care how much profit is made.

      Competitive to me is the performance of the device, not EBITDA of the manufacturer. An iPhone 4, would not be any less good, or have better reception, if the margin on the device for Apple was 15% or 5% instead of 45%. Alternatively suppose a crap device which gives me a horrible experience, but for some reason would have a very high margin, would make for a competitive company from an investment point of view, but not for me as a consumer. This is the reason why we should look at it from two angles.

      It is sad we’re no longer in the same league.

      > True as far as image in the Anglo Saxon world is concerned.

      Thanks for agreeing again. I only harp on this point because this is the point of the post. I think you get it now. It’s great that Nokia is competitive in the mid to low range. It’s WONDERfUL! I just hate it when Nokia cool-aid drinking folks think they’re still in the high-end when they’re not.

      > I think this is a matter of language, I read this as Nokia is able to compete in the high end, but not with their current line up. They have the resources, the technology and the products necessary in the pipeline, its just not here now. So they are not competitive in the high end now, but they can be. “Can’t compete” to me sounds like they are not able to, ever.

      We can throw millions of units around and pretend they’re great but I’d rather be Apple, sell millions and earn BILLIONS. That’s what happens when you’re competitive in the high end. Really, I’ll stop beating the dead horse when I think people get it.

      > Again, I couldn’t care less who makes the money, the only thing I care about what I pay for the device I have and what it does. I don’t care about Nokia vs Apple, outside of how the products stack up.

      Nice try, slice it and dice it any way you like but high end smartphones today is what I described. Go by OS and you know who the players are. Anyone else is a pretender. Mid to low as you mentioned.

      > First of all, OS is not equal to high end or low end device. There are cheap crap android phones, and very good high end symbian devices like the I8910. The N8, with S^3, in my mind is a high end device (with a mid range price). I think MeeGo is above and beyond the competition. So, again, the better way to analyze this is to stratify smartphones in price ranges. All of the major OS’s outside of iOS we will see in very divergent price points. Also, distinguishing between a consumer point of view or an investor is valid, like I pointed out before.

      OK, twice was a bit of a stretch. Nokia’s marketcap is $33B. Tack on the $10B and you have about what Apple has in cash.

      > So you were wrong

      Yeah, who cares about the most profitable smartphone company right now, the market leader, the one who sets the trends.

      > iOS or Apple is not going to destroy Nokia or reduce my chances of getting a great S^4 or MeeGo device. Android & Bada are much bigger problems. Hence the irrelevance. And again, how much Apple is making is irrelevant to this point as well.

      Are you even paying attention? They made HUGE mistakes AND STILL they’re selling every phone they can make as soon as it leaves the manufacturing floor!!! Are insane? You think they can be ignored?

      > For the points I mentioned above, I think iOS is not Nokia’s primary concern. iDevices are relatively niche, and their marketshare is reducing. I think you are just assuming people are blind fanboys here whilst not “getting” what I am writing. I know this industry fairly well.

      AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      This is why I hate Nokia apologizers. I’ll step through this without my brain exploding. In Tomi’s post he talks specifically about how GREAT Nokia is how they had more features than Apple except 1 or 2. That the N97 is better than the iPhone and etc etc. How CAN you POSSIBLY say that Apple had a head start when Nokia was CLEARLY the market leader CLEARLY the one setting trends before Apple. They had cut and paste and multi-tasking and a store and where are they now? Don’t pretend like Nokia is this little underdog that’s being beaten up by Apple and they’re just catching up. They’re were the 500lb gorilla and now they’re the chimp or chump.
      Apple didn’t have a head start they JUMPED OVER Nokia, left them in the dust and Nokia then spun their wheels for 2+ years and now FINALLY have a strategy and while Apple is earning Billions Nokia sits around waiting for that next OS to make a dent. Yeah, wait ’til 2011, that’ll be the year. That’s what Nokia’s been saying for what, 2 yeas now?

      > Again, you just blab along but miss the point. Apple’s strong point is UI in an OS that has been in development for years, and was much different and in many ways better than what was out there. The very moment the first iPhone came out, all other vendors were effectively years behind in developing anything similar. Apple burst into the scene with something they had worked on for a long time. It takes substantial time and effort to build something that is as good as that for its competitors. So OBVIOUSLY Nokia was the gorilla, but this doesn’t negate the fact they were behind in UI/OS as soon as the Iphone came out.

      On the strategy part you are just saying very dumb things. Of course they had a strategy. It was focusing heavily on services for a few years, then come back to devices and software. While they were focused on something else, Apple made an unexpected splash, Nokia was caught off guard and has been slow to execute their response. The OS to make a dent is funny though.

      All the way to the bank.

      > This again a very stupid response to a valid point. Nokia has in part been so slow because of fear of alienating people familiar with the UI. As this industry progresses, moving to mobile computers, iOS in the way it works (not technically) is least suitable for that and Apple stand to lose the most when the market demands they change their UI in the future. Its two sides to a coin, Apple UI is very recognizable.

      Bada, really. Are Nokia’s sights so low now that they are picking fights with Bada? That’s beyond sad.

      > Yes Bada. I wont comment on the quality of your response this time, but Bada is going to be pushed hard by Samsung, and will take its part of the market. Android is pushed by many manufactures. One of the reasons iOS is irrelevant to this is that it will only be use by Apple, and they are not going to grow a lot of marketshare anymore. (Yes, they make Trillions of dollars, but again, irrelevant here). This is not fanboy speak, it’s a visible trend, confirmed by many analysts. For looking at who will be threatening Nokia, as a delta to today, its Android and Bada. Bada before Winpho 7 or WebOS2.

      Yeah, the most profitable smartphone that they can’t make fast enough is so 2009. What as I thinking. Thanks for helping me see the light /sarcasm

      > When you need to indicate sarcasm with /sarcasm, its not very good sarcasm. Why iOS is irrelevant to this discussion I already pointed out. Apple market share peaked in 2009, which is why I said that.

      Yeah, and the only reason why we are discussing it is because that’s the point of this post.

      > No we are discussing this because you mix up margin with user experience.

      A tad too long is adding 2 months to 1.2. Falling behind is not having a strategy for 2 years while Apple at your lunch.

      > Besides the fact that too long is subjective, “not having a strategy” is hilarious. You might argue their strategy was wrong, or their timing was off, or they execute poorly, but “not having a strategy” is so far outside of the realm of possibility I can only qualify that remark as stupid.

      Profit in the Billions. How many Billion will Nokia make this year?

      > My guess is anywhere between 1 to 2 Billion for the year on Handsets. Apple will most likely earn about 6 Billion on Phones this year. So yes, money earning wise they are behind. But they are still making money while having no high end effectively, so Nokia’s future actually looks good. Don’t believe the hype that they are doomed.

  15. George
    July 24, 2010 at 10:38 pm

    > The theme here is you missing the point. The graph indeed does not prove Nokia is currently competitive. Their current line up is not, in the high end. I am not defending the article title here, I am disagreeing with your reasoning.

    Ok, so we agree that Nokia isn’t competitive in the High End, that’s all I am trying to say. Can they be competitive? Sure, but that includes WinPho 7, Bada and etc. Can is different than are.

    Competitive to me is the performance of the device, not EBITDA of the manufacturer.

    Haha, yes as a business who cares about earnings. Surely not the stockholders.

    An iPhone 4, would not be any less good, or have better reception, if the margin on the device for Apple was 15% or 5% instead of 45%. Alternatively suppose a crap device which gives me a horrible experience, but for some reason would have a very high margin, would make for a competitive company from an investment point of view, but not for me as a consumer. This is the reason why we should look at it from two angles.
    Hmm.. the consumer. How do consumers decide what is good for the consumer? Oh, wait that’s right. They buy it. But who wants to look at how they spend money, that’s just irrelevant.
    > True as far as image in the Anglo Saxon world is concerned.

    This comment makes no sense.

    So they are not competitive in the high end now, but they can be. “Can’t compete” to me sounds like they are not able to, ever.

    We’re talking about the current vs the future. Read the article again, the article makes the claim that they’re competitive in the high end now because look how much marketshare Nokia has.

    > Again, I couldn’t care less who makes the money, the only thing I care about what I pay for the device I have and what it does. I don’t care about Nokia vs Apple, outside of how the products stack up.

    Um, the article isn’t about your needs. The article puts into question Nokias ability to compete right now. Please don’t let this be about you but the industry.

    > First of all, OS is not equal to high end or low end device. There are cheap crap android phones, and very good high end symbian devices like the I8910. The N8, with S^3, in my mind is a high end device (with a mid range price).

    True. I use OS as a general rule to give people an easy way to visualize the market. You can disagree. At some point we can slice it based on hardware. My point was to set the stage so that people realize how the game is shifting. It’s not super exact but I think it gets the point across.

    I think MeeGo is above and beyond the competition.

    Haha. What a JOKE. By the way, iOS 5 is beyond Meego and who knows Windows Mobile 8 is the cat’s meow and Google 3.0 is the absolute pinnacle of software perfection. MeeGo is so far in the early stages the fact that you would make your claim unsubstantiated by anything of substance indicates your clear lack of grasp of the situation at hand.
    That’s what I dislike about Nokia discussions. They either live in the past of how great they WERE and also how great it WILL Be but they never deal with problems NOW.
    I’m rooting for MeeGo too but if its going to beat WebOS, iOS 4 and Froyo, it’s got some serious work to do and the little I see so far. Really not indicative of anything either way.

    > So you were wrong

    Haha. Feel better? Get it out. Relish it. 🙂 I make mistakes and am not afraid to own it. I was just speaking of all cash though. If they used stock and cash they could buy Nokia twice. But yeah, they would have to double their cash reserves to buy Nokia twice.

    > iOS or Apple is not going to destroy Nokia

    Who said Nokia was going to get destroyed?

    > For the points I mentioned above, I think iOS is not Nokia’s primary concern.

    Because you don’t think they compete in the high end. Fine.

    iDevices are relatively niche, and their marketshare is reducing.

    Um, no. They’re selling more devices than ever and faster than they can build them. Obscure the facts with mid-range smartphones but that’s fine. Don’t need to beat the dead horse. You can ignore that their unit volume is increasing and their numbers are through the roof.

    I think you are just assuming people are blind fanboys here whilst not “getting” what I am writing. I know this industry fairly well.

    Yup, you’re the expert.

    > Again, you just blab along but miss the point. Apple’s strong point is UI in an OS that has been in development for years, and was much different and in many ways better than what was out there. The very moment the first iPhone came out, all other vendors were effectively years behind in developing anything similar. Apple burst into the scene with something they had worked on for a long time. It takes substantial time and effort to build something that is as good as that for its competitors. So OBVIOUSLY Nokia was the gorilla, but this doesn’t negate the fact they were behind in UI/OS as soon as the Iphone came out.

    Haha. You just describe leap being leap frogged. You start from nothing when you have no previous product. Believe what you want to believe. Yes, Nokia was behind when the iPhone released and that’s because Nokia decided that it wasn’t important to innovate. They were making millions and in the lead. Why change. Just keep churning out incremental adjustments and different styles each year. That’s what everyone wants. No one wants something revolutionary.
    By the way. Ignore the device for a sec. Look at their app store. Yeah, you can argue lots of dups and fart apps, but the fact that they are the default paltform for mobile app development says a lot not just about the hone but the ecosystem they’ve created in such a short time. How old is the Ovi store and how quickly did Apple surpass them. Tell me again how Nokia wasn’t asleep at the wheel.

    On the strategy part you are just saying very dumb things. Of course they had a strategy. It was focusing heavily on services for a few years, then come back to devices and software.

    Please, share with me these services so I can assuage my angst at the perceived lack of vision from Nokia.

    While they were focused on something else, Apple made an unexpected splash, Nokia was caught off guard and has been slow to execute their response. The OS to make a dent is funny though.

    I aim to please.

    > This again a very stupid response to a valid point. Nokia has in part been so slow because of fear of alienating people familiar with the UI. As this industry progresses, moving to mobile computers, iOS in the way it works (not technically) is least suitable for that and Apple stand to lose the most when the market demands they change their UI in the future. Its two sides to a coin, Apple UI is very recognizable.

    You’re losing sight of the fact that we’re dealing with a new generation of smartphone user who adapt quickly and get tired of something just as quickly. I’m not saying there isn’t a place for featurephone and low to mid-range smartphone. At the high end it’s about pushing the envelope not coddling those who like their Menu icon in the same place on every phone. Keep focused we’re speaking about the High end which right now is about the cutting edge. That may change but that’s the rule now rather than the exception.

    p>Bada, really. Are Nokia’s sights so low now that they are picking fights with Bada? That’s beyond sad.
    > Yes Bada. I wont comment on the quality of your response this time, but Bada is going to be pushed hard by Samsung, and will take its part of the market. Android is pushed by many manufactures.

    You seem to not like my Bada comments. They’re not even listed in the graph, they are somewhere in Other. I’m sure Nokia will keep an eye on them but that’s clearly not the target.

    One of the reasons iOS is irrelevant to this is that it will only be use by Apple, and they are not going to grow a lot of marketshare anymore. (Yes, they make Trillions of dollars, but again, irrelevant here).

    That’s what the “experts” say. Let’s look at history. They sold millions of iPhones then when they thought they couldn’t sell anymore they sold the Nano and the Shuffle. After millions of those they keep selling then they said, they couldn’t sell anymore then came the Touch… then the iPhone… waith, then came the iPad.
    Do you SEE the difference between Apple and Nokia? They dominate and then they INNOVATE. They have a strange way proving analysts wrong. They should be emulated not ignored, and I’m not saying black turtle neck and Jeans like Jobs, but the fact they continue to re-invent themselves and are not will to just be followers speaks volumes. Make fun of them all you want… but they make good stuff.

    > When you need to indicate sarcasm with /sarcasm, its not very good sarcasm.

    Oh, you got me. Ouch! Haha. It was just added for emphasis but I hope you feel better.

    > No we are discussing this because you mix up margin with user experience.

    Where in the article does the OP refer to marketshare vs user experience? oh, wait he doesn’t mention user experience he is talking about marketshare. I’m speaking about margins which is an important point to include along with marketshare.

    > Besides the fact that too long is subjective, “not having a strategy” is hilarious. You might argue their strategy was wrong, or their timing was off, or they execute poorly, but “not having a strategy” is so far outside of the realm of possibility I can only qualify that remark as stupid.

    Fine, they had a stupid strategy. Release Maemo, then release Harmattan which wasn’t forward compatible with Maemo. Oh, release MeeGo, which is not fully compatible with Maemo or Harmattan. Oh, wait release Harmattan and MeeGo based devices even though there is no fugure with Harmattan.
    Great strategy. Linear forward / backward compatible releases are so passé. Who’d ever want that?

    > My guess is anywhere between 1 to 2 Billion for the year on Handsets.

    in profit? Like to back that up somewhere?

    But they are still making money while having no high end effectively, so Nokia’s future actually looks good. Don’t believe the hype that they are doomed.

    If you think they’re doomed that’s your thing. I never made that claim. Go back and reread if you’re not clear. My assertion was that they are not competitive on the high end. Have I repeated that enough times for you?

    • JFH
      July 25, 2010 at 11:43 am

      Ok, so we agree that Nokia isn’t competitive in the High End, that’s all I am trying to say. Can they be competitive? Sure, but that includes WinPho 7, Bada and etc. Can is different than are.

      > The title says can’t, not aren’t.

      Competitive to me is the performance of the device, not EBITDA of the manufacturer.

      Haha, yes as a business who cares about earnings. Surely not the stockholders.

      > Are we on Bloomberg.com? WSJ.com? Why is it so terribly difficult for you to understand that consumers don’t care about earnings. Outside of fanboys of course who like to scream “company A is better than company B because they make more money on the products I buy from them” We like phones, you pay $600 for the device, what do you care about the margin on it? What do you care about the actual cost the device has?

      Hmm.. the consumer. How do consumers decide what is good for the consumer? Oh, wait that’s right. They buy it. But who wants to look at how they spend money, that’s just irrelevant.

      > Spending money creates revenue. Revenue is not profit. Of course people vote with their wallet. Its just that they do not care about profits. Profit is irrelevant, yes. Profit becomes relevant when we discuss divident, or share price, or the ability to invest money in technology. I don’t think profitability is the issue with Nokia, they have ample cash which they are not spending.

      This comment makes no sense.

      > What part don’t you understand, Nokia’s image, or brand perception, is especially poor in the US, and its sphere of influence. Anglo Saxon world is popularly used as a term for English speaking countries, countries where news from the US arrives most quicky, like Canada, the UK, Australia.

      We’re talking about the current vs the future. Read the article again, the article makes the claim that they’re competitive in the high end now because look how much marketshare Nokia has.

      > Like I said before, I am not defending the article, I agree with you there. I do not agree with your reasoning. So, our discussion is not just about the article title.

      Um, the article isn’t about your needs. The article puts into question Nokias ability to compete right now. Please don’t let this be about you but the industry.

      > The only thing defining Nokia’s ability to compete right now are devices. Surely you understand I talk about myself as an example of how the average consumer would view this. Please don’t try and twist words so you can continue to sound like a broken record in every answer you give, while not answering any real questions.

      True. I use OS as a general rule to give people an easy way to visualize the market. You can disagree. At some point we can slice it based on hardware. My point was to set the stage so that people realize how the game is shifting. It’s not super exact but I think it gets the point across.

      > Its not super exact, and you miss the main point of your own approach. Lets just take as an example simple symbian phones, that are becoming cheaper, and make up a large part of Nokia’s smartphone marketshare. Even though those phones don’t sell for $ 600, they still have access to the Ovi store, use Ovi services etc. Now we can argue about whether or not those Ovi services and the Ovi store amount to something, but you get the point. You assume others don’t see how this marketshare doesn’t say everything, but you miss out on the things it does say.

      Haha. What a JOKE. By the way, iOS 5 is beyond Meego and who knows Windows Mobile 8 is the cat’s meow and Google 3.0 is the absolute pinnacle of software perfection. MeeGo is so far in the early stages the fact that you would make your claim unsubstantiated by anything of substance indicates your clear lack of grasp of the situation at hand.
      That’s what I dislike about Nokia discussions. They either live in the past of how great they WERE and also how great it WILL Be but they never deal with problems NOW.
      I’m rooting for MeeGo too but if its going to beat WebOS, iOS 4 and Froyo, it’s got some serious work to do and the little I see so far. Really not indicative of anything either way.

      > Obviously, I understand all of that. We are not discussing Nokia’s chances of having an effective high end by looking at what is here today, but what they are working on. Nokia has had multi billion profit quarters, and now they don’t. Now Apple has those. What is interesting is to see how the competitors are planning for the future. This is where I disagree with you, with your assessment of Nokia’s plan going forward. On the OS, yes all we know is that they are working on it, we have only seen some demo’s so obviously that is not what I base my thinking on. The reason I say this is that I think MeeGo is better equipped to deal with the direction the mobile industry is heading. The future of Mobile phones at the high end is mobile computing, even more so than media consumption alone. Think of a MeeGo device, that connects to a screen, a printer & a keyboard, and you can use as a real computer. Like running open office on your N900 ( without having to use easy debian). That stuff is mind boggling. How about higher wireless speeds like LTE? One of the main reasons we went back in time to apps, and not forward with universal webbased technology, is performance. Both the browser speed and the connection speed are for instance too little on the N900 when I am in the Ovi store to be as enjoyable as the App Store on my Ipod Touch. I think we are going to move beyond Apps towards webbased and cloud based solutions, that we access through standards compliant browsers and fast connections. I understand this stuff is still a few years out, but that is also the time it takes to bring out new products or technologies. Everything that is coming out this year has been in development for a long while. We have no influence anymore on what happens this year, or early next year.

      Haha. Feel better? Get it out. Relish it… etc….

      > I am not sure why you think I would feel better because of you being wrong.

      Who said Nokia was going to get destroyed?

      > I used an hyperbole to indicate other OS’s pose a bigger threat.

      Because you don’t think they compete in the high end. Fine.

      > No, because of the fact it is only used by Apple.

      Um, no. They’re selling more devices than ever and faster than they can build them. Obscure the facts with mid-range smartphones but that’s fine. Don’t need to beat the dead horse. You can ignore that their unit volume is increasing and their numbers are through the roof.

      > Um yes, 14% of smartphones, and a tiny percentage of all phones is relatively niche. Android will be much larger. The entire smartphone space is growing, as is the entire mobile space. They are not selling more devices than ever, they sold less that previous quarters, and this includes the spike we see from a new product launch. That is just the way it is. Of course, their share of plus $600 is much larger than 14% but that too has been going down.

      Yup, you’re the expert.

      > No need to be sarcastic, why not do some more elaborate reasoning yourself.

      Haha. You just describe leap being leap frogged. You start from nothing when you have no previous product. Believe what you want to believe. Yes, Nokia was behind when the iPhone released and that’s because Nokia decided that it wasn’t important to innovate. They were making millions and in the lead. Why change. Just keep churning out incremental adjustments and different styles each year. That’s what everyone wants. No one wants something revolutionary.
      By the way. Ignore the device for a sec. Look at their app store. Yeah, you can argue lots of dups and fart apps, but the fact that they are the default paltform for mobile app development says a lot not just about the hone but the ecosystem they’ve created in such a short time. How old is the Ovi store and how quickly did Apple surpass them. Tell me again how Nokia wasn’t asleep at the wheel.

      > Nokia thought touchscreen devices would not become the norm. That was a bad call. I don’t think that equates to being asleep at the wheel. That way, everyone in the industry was asleep. Just suppose HTC comes out with the best and greatest device and OS ever, that they have been working on for years, and that completely destroys any competition out there. Did Apple now fall asleep at the wheel? There is no arguing over the app store. It’s a stellar success. Ovi store is younger than the App store though, and does more downloads than the Android market.

      Please, share with me these services so I can assuage my angst at the perceived lack of vision from Nokia.

      > All of the stuff in Ovi is what they worked on. Again, this is not about whether or not we feel these services are good or not. I firmly believe Nokia’s vision is not the problem. It is execution speed & excellence and internal strife. Bonus point for you for using a proper german word: angst.

      I aim to please.

      > Then please me and explain how you think the market is going to develop over the coming 2 years.

      You’re losing sight of the fact that we’re dealing with a new generation of smartphone user who adapt quickly and get tired of something just as quickly. I’m not saying there isn’t a place for featurephone and low to mid-range smartphone. At the high end it’s about pushing the envelope not coddling those who like their Menu icon in the same place on every phone. Keep focused we’re speaking about the High end which right now is about the cutting edge. That may change but that’s the rule now rather than the exception.

      > You mix up high end with bleeding edge technology. High end for the general consumer equates to price. N900 users that install power user kernels are not the norm. People go for familiar things. Pushing the envelope is going to be done hardware wise. People don’t seem to have gotten tired from icon grids in iOS when there are widgets around. Apple made folders look like icons just to keep the visual aspect in line. People recognize iOS, or sense UI. If HTC removes the giant clock, people notice.

      You seem to not like my Bada comments. They’re not even listed in the graph, they are somewhere in Other. I’m sure Nokia will keep an eye on them but that’s clearly not the target.

      > Your Bada comments are shallow. Samsung will stop pushing Android as soon as Bada reaches critical mass. From then on Bada is a real threat.

      That’s what the “experts” say. Let’s look at history. They sold millions of iPhones then when they thought they couldn’t sell anymore they sold the Nano and the Shuffle. After millions of those they keep selling then they said, they couldn’t sell anymore then came the Touch… then the iPhone… waith, then came the iPad.
      Do you SEE the difference between Apple and Nokia? They dominate and then they INNOVATE. They have a strange way proving analysts wrong. They should be emulated not ignored, and I’m not saying black turtle neck and Jeans like Jobs, but the fact they continue to re-invent themselves and are not will to just be followers speaks volumes. Make fun of them all you want… but they make good stuff.

      > I know they do, I am writing this from my MacBook Pro. I have a LED Cinema Display. I have nothing against Apple. But, you are being arbitrary here. Nokia reinvented itself from Paper, Rubber Boots, Car tyres, VCR’s, Mobile devices and attempting to go to services & R&D. They were in a very bad spot. Their strengths were being commoditized (production excellence, logistics) and they were being challenged in areas that we not their strong points. About Apple, yes if an iPhone nano comes, different story.

      Where in the article does the OP refer to marketshare vs user experience? oh, wait he doesn’t mention user experience he is talking about marketshare. I’m speaking about margins which is an important point to include along with marketshare.

      > Again, its not about the OP anymore. Margins are irrelevant.

      Fine, they had a stupid strategy. Release Maemo, then release Harmattan which wasn’t forward compatible with Maemo. Oh, release MeeGo, which is not fully compatible with Maemo or Harmattan. Oh, wait release Harmattan and MeeGo based devices even though there is no fugure with Harmattan.
      Great strategy. Linear forward / backward compatible releases are so passé. Who’d ever want that?

      > And I assume you have a much better solution, a firm grasp on the constraints within all these projects, the rationale behind their long term view, the way their IP in development is going to play a role, etc. I bet you are really knowledgeable about all of this, to make such an well informed statement, based on so much more than the fact you don’t like the fact our N900 is not getting an official OS upgrade to MeeGo/Harmattan. Why do you insist on stating the obvious all the time and thinking you are educating people? Yes, OBVIOUSLY, it would have been better if everything would be compatible, forward backward, lateral. Do you really think they would not have done that if it were remotely possible?

      in profit? Like to back that up somewhere?

      > Sure:
      http://www.nokia.com/about-nokia/financials/quarterly-and-annual-information/q1-2010
      http://www.nokia.com/about-nokia/financials/quarterly-and-annual-information/q2-2010

      Nokia made 1.47 Billion on handsets so far, this year. So, I am wrong, it will be closer to 3 Billion this year as I expect Q3 to resemble Q2, and Q4 to see an increasing ASP again. Nokia Siemens networks & Navteq are separate BU’s that have made a loss. This is not indicative of Nokia’s mobile phone performance. Note this is without any of the higher end devices we would like to see. And of course, profit is irrelevant.

      If you think they’re doomed that’s your thing. I never made that claim. Go back and reread if you’re not clear. My assertion was that they are not competitive on the high end. Have I repeated that enough times for you?

      > You said much more than just not competitive in the high end now. That is what we are discussing. So beyond stating the obvious, please enlighten me with some of your own insights. I am especially curious to listen to how you think the market will shape, how Nokia’s strategy stacks up to the competitors (please, a bit more than “Sleeping at the wheel”), and how this will influence Nokia’s ability to produce successful high end devices again.

      • JFH
        July 25, 2010 at 11:53 am

        Oh, the numbers are in Euro’s, so times 1.3 (now) gives you dollars. Just over 4 Billion.

      • George
        July 25, 2010 at 4:58 pm

        Apparently we’re competing for who can have the longest post. 🙂

        > Are we on Bloomberg.com? WSJ.com? Why is it so terribly difficult for you to understand that consumers don’t care about earnings.

        No, we’re not. I’m just saying, let’s use all of the facts available for us to make informed analysis.
        Using your argument, if features is all consumers care about then marketshare has no relevance either and this entire discussion is moot.

        I don’t think profitability is the issue with Nokia, they have ample cash which they are not spending.

        Tell that to OPK when he gets replaced.

        > What part don’t you understand, Nokia’s image, or brand perception, is especially poor in the US, and its sphere of influence. Anglo Saxon world is popularly used as a term for English speaking countries, countries where news from the US arrives most quicky, like Canada, the UK, Australia.

        Anglo Saxon has origins in Europe I believe, which is why I was confused.

        > The only thing defining Nokia’s ability to compete right now are devices. Surely you understand I talk about myself as an example of how the average consumer would view this.

        Allow me to ask you to consider then that you’re not the average consumer. You surely don’t represent the segment that would buy an iPhone even though it has a flawed antenna design.

        > Um yes, 14% of smartphones, and a tiny percentage of all phones is relatively niche.

        I bet Nokia would love to own a little niche like that. I’m glad Android will be larger. It would be interesting to see if the Android market is as profitable as the single Apple product line.

        > Nokia thought touchscreen devices would not become the norm. That was a bad call. I don’t think that equates to being asleep at the wheel. That way, everyone in the industry was asleep

        Well, LG did it first but Apple made it famous with kinetic scrolling and multi-touch. Was everyone else asleep? I’ve seen competitive products from the Android market all year long. Android started from scratch and caught up. Nokia will finally be serious about it what, November?

        It is execution speed & excellence and internal strife. Bonus point for you for using a proper german word: angst.

        Strategy without execution is meaningless. It’s a tough world out there.

        > You mix up high end with bleeding edge technology.

        To me they’re the same, at least for now.

        High end for the general consumer equates to price. N900 users that install power user kernels are not the norm.

        EXACTLY. N900 users are NOT the norm. They are not representative of the general population of high-end smartphone users. Not many Android or iOS user I know would be able to manage a Titan kernel, much less even know what a kernel is.

        > Your Bada comments are shallow. Samsung will stop pushing Android as soon as Bada reaches critical mass. From then on Bada is a real threat.

        This market is shallow, marketing is shallow. It’s a shallow world. Nokia should keep an eye on Bada, but they are not the target, at least not for now.

        I have nothing against Apple. But, you are being arbitrary here. Nokia reinvented itself from Paper, Rubber Boots, Car tyres, VCR’s, Mobile devices and attempting to go to services & R&D.

        Where is that re-inventiveness now. My point is that they’re iterating and not innovating. Let’s see some real progress.

        > And I assume you have a much better solution, a firm grasp on the constraints within all these projects… Do you really think they would not have done that if it were remotely possible?

        As a consumer I don’t care what the problems are. I just care about the end result. It’s too bad for Nokia because Apple and Google have somehow figured it out.

        Nokia made 1.47 Billion on handsets so far, this year. So, I am wrong, it will be closer to 3 Billion this year as I expect Q3 to resemble Q2, and Q4 to see an increasing ASP again… Note this is without any of the higher end devices we would like to see. And of course, profit is irrelevant.

        Great!

        > You said much more than just not competitive in the high end now

        Probably.
        One last point. We go on and on about features and etc. Sure the N8 and N900 will have some nice features, but is that all that consumers care about? I think Apple was caught off guard how successful the app store was and is. I can check boxes all day long in Nokia’s column but when you get beyond “phone” technology to the apps, there are literally hundreds of thousands more “features” that you have on your iPhone that you don’t have Maemo or MeeGo. iPhone apps have branched away from being just enhancements to the phone. People are building so many apps that the iPhone is just becoming a default computing device that happens to take phone calls, surf the web and listen to music.
        According to Tomi “Did you know Nokia launched its first app store in 2003? Yes, five years before Apple’s App Store.” It’s hard to be competitive when you have Apps for multiple S60 variants, S^3, S^4, Maemo, Harmattan, Meego, QT. Hmm. Why would a developer want to play in this world? Which does he choose?
        I think its one of the major reasons people like the iPhone because it so insanely useful. My N900 apps? Mostly are to address shortcomings of the N900 that Nokia doesn’t want to deal with. Not many people are going to make money off of that model.

        • JFH
          July 25, 2010 at 5:58 pm

          Using your argument, if features is all consumers care about then marketshare has no relevance either and this entire discussion is moot.

          > True

          Tell that to OPK when he gets replaced.

          > OPK is leading a publicly traded company. They look at profits, and profits now. I understand that. They don’t care about the great longer term strategy. They cannot attach value to that, there are too many variables, and their excel models fry. Sometimes it is better for companies not to be traded, in order to avoid this.

          Anglo Saxon has origins in Europe I believe, which is why I was confused.

          > Ok. Angles & Saxons, Germanic tribes, invaded British Isles, namesakes to England & English, and through England spread. My English friends never appreciate it when I point out they are German. 😉 (I am not btw)

          Allow me to ask you to consider then that you’re not the average consumer. You surely don’t represent the segment that would buy an iPhone even though it has a flawed antenna design.

          > Indeed, I wouldn’t buy the iPhone. What I said should have read: I, if I were an average consumer, do not care.

          I bet Nokia would love to own a little niche like that. I’m glad Android will be larger. It would be interesting to see if the Android market is as profitable as the single Apple product line.

          > Yes Nokia would love to own that niche again, no doubt, but it is still a niche. But as it stands now, it is not the primary threat. Android is.

          Well, LG did it first but Apple made it famous with kinetic scrolling and multi-touch. Was everyone else asleep? I’ve seen competitive products from the Android market all year long. Android started from scratch and caught up. Nokia will finally be serious about it what, November?

          > Depending on how you look at it, Apple itself (Newton) Nokia or LG were first. Android was in development for years before the iPhone came out. The company that developed it was purchased in 2005. Two full years before Anno iPhone. Also, I think starting from scratch is easier, then try to make Symbian better. Android had no user base to lose, Symbian did. Its not as easy as it looks, plus, the technology that allowed Nokia to build a better UI was not present in the company when iPhone came out. Trolltech/Qt was bought later. I am not saying Nokia did well, I am explaining why it hasn’t been quicker, and why its not due to Nokia not trying very hard.

          Strategy without execution is meaningless. It’s a tough world out there.

          > The title of your new book? Sequels: “With power comes responsibility” & “The wiser you get, the less you know”. I think we should be careful not to crucify Nokia for being incompetent or asleep in our attempts to (rightfully) confront them with their mistakes. No other company has dealt with the entrance of Apple in the market as well as Nokia. Every other manufacturer has given up, jumped on the Android bandwagon and hopes for the best. Mind you, if Nokia fails to execute on their strategy, there is nothing stopping them from adopting Android. Android would become the defacto standard overnight, the windows of the mobile space. Samsung has this power as well, to a lesser extent, which is why Bada is significant, even though its just a blip on the radar now.

          To me they’re the same, at least for now.

          > “Allow me to ask you to consider then that you’re not the average consumer.”

          This market is shallow, marketing is shallow. It’s a shallow world. Nokia should keep an eye on Bada, but they are not the target, at least not for now.

          > Yes they are, just because marketing & the market is shallow doesn’t mean you need to conform and not critically look at the strategic important of Bada in the mobile space.

          As a consumer I don’t care what the problems are. I just care about the end result. It’s too bad for Nokia because Apple and Google have somehow figured it out.

          > Who says today is the end result? Ironically though, now you say the end consumer just looks at the end result. This also implies not looking at margin ☺

          Great!

          > Yeah, made my day.

          Probably.

          One last point. We go on and on about features and etc. Sure the N8 and N900 will have some nice features, but is that all that consumers care about? I think Apple was caught off guard how successful the app store was and is. I can check boxes all day long in Nokia’s column but when you get beyond “phone” technology to the apps, there are literally hundreds of thousands more “features” that you have on your iPhone that you don’t have Maemo or MeeGo. iPhone apps have branched away from being just enhancements to the phone. People are building so many apps that the iPhone is just becoming a default computing device that happens to take phone calls, surf the web and listen to music.
          According to Tomi “Did you know Nokia launched its first app store in 2003? Yes, five years before Apple’s App Store.” It’s hard to be competitive when you have Apps for multiple S60 variants, S^3, S^4, Maemo, Harmattan, Meego, QT. Hmm. Why would a developer want to play in this world? Which does he choose?
          I think its one of the major reasons people like the iPhone because it so insanely useful. My N900 apps? Mostly are to address shortcomings of the N900 that Nokia doesn’t want to deal with. Not many people are going to make money off of that model.

          > Actually, iPhone apps are never enhancements to the phone, Apple does not allow duplication/improvement of core functionality through apps. (Well maybe Opera) You can forget about fCAM on iOS. Outside of fMMS, I don’t see the apps on my device as trying to cover for lacking software. However, I see your point.

          I am myself investing in the S^3, S^4 & MeeGo ecosystem, and I believe in Qt as a good solution and a way to counter fragmentation. It’s a problem Android has as well, but I think the Qt solution is better.

          Personally, I chose to work on creating stuff for the Nokia side of things, because of discoverability. There is less focus on this market, its big, it does between 600 million and 1 billion downloads a year (with this line up!) and the biggest competitors are foolishly looking only at Android & iOS. To come full circle, for me, and developers, market share, unit numbers are what counts. A cheap phone can download an app as well. Yes of course, some demographics are at play, where more expensive phones are used by richer people who are more inclined to buy apps. In my own calculations, however, the number game is a much stronger factor. This is Nokia’s play, and does not negate the stuff they want to do in the high end.

          For S^3, which can run Qt apps, so they wont have to be shoddy java trinkets, we are looking at 50 million devices to be sold. Add to that, S^4, MeeGo. I mean, Nokia sells more smartphones next year that can run Qt apps, than the entire size of the iOS ecosystem user base. I would be an idiot not to try and get some of that.

          Now, out of the questions I asked you but haven’t gotten answers to, this one I am most curious to know your answer to:

          “I am especially curious to listen to how you think the market will shape, how Nokia’s strategy stacks up to the competitors (please, a bit more than “Sleeping at the wheel”), and how this will influence Nokia’s ability to produce successful high end devices again”

          Thanks in advance.

          • George
            July 25, 2010 at 10:38 pm

            > Yes Nokia would love to own that niche again, no doubt, but it is still a niche. But as it stands now, it is not the primary threat. Android is.

            $5.3B is not bad for 14% of one segment.

            > Depending on how you look at it, Apple itself (Newton) Nokia or LG were first.

            I’m thinking of the modern notion of the touch interface.

            > The title of your new book? Sequels: “With power comes responsibility” & “The wiser you get, the less you know”.

            That’s catchy. You don’t want the rights do you?

            I think we should be careful not to crucify Nokia for being incompetent or asleep in our attempts to (rightfully) confront them with their mistakes. No other company has dealt with the entrance of Apple in the market as well as Nokia.

            Except Google.

            > “Allow me to ask you to consider then that you’re not the average consumer.”

            I use the N900 so clearly am not the average user.

            > Who says today is the end result?

            It is. The discussion was Maemo -> Harmattan -> MeeGo. Unless you can tell me that Meego will be forwards / backwards compatible with Harmattan and then with meeGo, I think that’s pretty much the end result. Feel free to enlighten me on the Maemo to MeeGo transition and how that is better than the iPhone 3 version upgrade situation.

            Ironically though, now you say the end consumer just looks at the end result. This also implies not looking at margin ☺

            I was talking about Maemo-> MeeGo. I don’t care why the transition was so hard all I know is that the N900 has no successor or upgrade path when it comes to software.

            > Actually, iPhone apps are never enhancements to the phone, Apple does not allow duplication/improvement of core functionality through apps. (Well maybe Opera)

            EXACTLY! Whereas Nokia depends on these apps to make the Core UX more usable. Did it have to take Nokia until 1.2 to release USSD? Plus it doesn’t even support service codes

            I am myself investing in the S^3, S^4 & MeeGo ecosystem, and I believe in Qt as a good solution and a way to counter fragmentation. It’s a problem Android has as well, but I think the Qt solution is better.

            You still have the UI layer and incompatibilities between S^3 and S^4 and MeeGo. I can’t tell you if its better or worse. It’s different. At least Android can use tools like Eclips.

            Personally, I chose to work on creating stuff for the Nokia side of things, because of discoverability. There is less focus on this market, its big, it does between 600 million and 1 billion downloads a year (with this line up!) and the biggest competitors are foolishly looking only at Android & iOS. To come full circle, for me, and developers, market share, unit numbers are what counts.

            BINGO. I get it now, you’re not a consumer. All you care about is volume of users. See, as a consumer I care about the ecosystem with more apps. You don’t like that because that’s competition for you. I see why we are on different sides. Makes sense.

            For S^3, which can run Qt apps, so they wont have to be shoddy java trinkets

            Hey now, put up or shut up. The few QT apps I’ve seen so far are disappointing at the least and ugly to boot, so let’s not start calling the kettle black unless you have proof to back up your claims.

            , we are looking at 50 million devices to be sold. Add to that, S^4, MeeGo. I mean, Nokia sells more smartphones next year that can run Qt apps, than the entire size of the iOS ecosystem user base. I would be an idiot not to try and get some of that.

            And how has that app market worked for the hundreds of millions of S60 based phones. That should be a strong indicator right?

            “I am especially curious to listen to how you think the market will shape, how Nokia’s strategy stacks up to the competitors (please, a bit more than “Sleeping at the wheel”), and how this will influence Nokia’s ability to produce successful high end devices again”

            Sleeping at the wheel was a reference to them not seeing the shift in technology happen right in front of them. In many ways though its more about being able to execute rather than coming up with the perfect strategy .

  16. July 25, 2010 at 4:37 am

    Despite not having a high-end (premium) smartphone, Nokia managed to increase it’s smartphone marketshare. Isn’t that the point the article makes? Not sure why so much arguments are being had over this.

    • A-S-D
      July 25, 2010 at 4:58 am

      That is right but the title of the article is wrong as this isn’t about high-end phones but all smartphones in general. Nokia has no high-end phones is price is taken into consideration (for Australia). The N900 is priced at $750 RRP and that is the most expensive phone in Australia. This is also the price that Nokia Australia said the N8 is expected to cost showing price-wise that Nokia has no high-end devices. Feature-wise, unfortunately I agree with George and his rant in that N900 is the only high-end Nokia device at the moment. The Nokia N8 is in the upper mid-range category, both feature-wise and price-wise.

      • George
        July 25, 2010 at 6:41 am

        I’m glad my some people understand my rants. 😉

        To me this year marks the stratification of the smartphone market where the high-end is really distancing itself and creating its own niche. If Nokia keeps pretending that the market hasn’t shifted, they send the message to the market that they no longer understand what it means to be competitive.

        It has been 3 years since the iPhone release. Nokia needs to deliver on the 3 years of strategies and promises. I look forward to the day my friends are excited about Nokias again.

      • July 25, 2010 at 6:47 am

        I agree to the first part. However, I do not agree to the “feature-wise” part. If anything, Nokia smartphones have indeed been competitive feature-wise all along. However, they were not as competitive in end-user experience (thus, not allowing them to command a premium price in the market).

        • George
          July 25, 2010 at 7:00 am

          What is the difference between a Toyota and a Lexus? User Experience. Not a perfect analogy but close enough.

          Luxury brands strive to build customers for life. The iPhone has a flawed antenna but their customers are fiercely loyal. User experience is more than capacitive vs resistive or touch vs menu driven or whatever. Its about the experience a users goes though when using the phone.

          Get away from counting features and filling checkboxes. That isn’t all that consumers look at. At least not today.

          • July 25, 2010 at 7:03 am

            I never discounted the importance of UX. I just pointed out that Nokia is not behind in every aspect.

  17. Aifouni Per-CC'n
    July 25, 2010 at 7:16 am

    A-S-D :
    Feature-wise, unfortunately I agree with George and his rant in that N900 is the only high-end Nokia device at the moment. The Nokia N8 is in the upper mid-range category, both feature-wise and price-wise.

    Is iPhone 4 a high-end device? If so, what features does it have that make it a high-end device that Nokia N8 doesn’t have?

  18. Aifouni Per-CC'n
    July 25, 2010 at 9:45 am

    George :
    What is the difference between a Toyota and a Lexus? User Experience. Not a perfect analogy but close enough.
    Luxury brands strive to build customers for life. The iPhone has a flawed antenna but their customers are fiercely loyal. User experience is more than capacitive vs resistive or touch vs menu driven or whatever. Its about the experience a users goes though when using the phone.
    Get away from counting features and filling checkboxes. That isn’t all that consumers look at. At least not today.

    Well I don’t like the iPhone user experience. I don’t like it’s UI and it’s size. The grid format is not for me and all those transition FX annoy me. They are mostly pointless. They slow things down and load the CPU needlessly –> less juice left in the battery. It’s too small and too thin. I have big hands and it’s very difficult to handle. It feels like a small toy. Like it was made for children.

    This whole trend of making phones thinner and thinner is annoying and stupid. Are they really designing these phones for children? Or is Steve Jobs’ hands so god damn small? Make them bigger, thicker. I had Nokia 3660 and it was 26 mm thick. That’s almost 3 times the thickness of iPhone 4 and the 3660 didn’t feel too big or thick at all. In fact it felt a lot better than these new thin toys they make.

    The question is, am I the only one who feels this way? Am I some kind of an anomaly? Or are there others and maybe even a profitable market for bigger phones.

    • George
      July 25, 2010 at 5:17 pm

      Well I don’t like the iPhone user experience. I don’t like it’s UI and it’s size. The grid format is not for me and all those transition FX annoy me… I have big hands and it’s very difficult to handle. It feels like a small toy. Like it was made for children.
      This whole trend of making phones thinner and thinner is annoying and stupid… Are they really designing these phones for children? Or is Steve Jobs’ hands so god damn small?…
      The question is, am I the only one who feels this way? Am I some kind of an anomaly? Or are there others and maybe even a profitable market for bigger phones.

      The demographic for the iPhone tends to be young, not kids, but high school, college and young adult.

      Don’t take this the wrong way, but you’re probably not the norm. I wouldn’t say anomaly because there are there are phones by Dell, Motorola and HTC that will fit you fine. The trend is thinner and smaller though. You can always add a big fat silicone case and fatten up any phone.

  19. July 25, 2010 at 9:48 am

    What does “high-end” look like in 2015? Who has the best chance of getting there? Start with, what does it take to get there. IMHO — billions in profits are helpful in making the necessary investments to continue to push the technology envelope; a rich 3rd party developer community helps because it brings a stream of innovations from the outside; having devices that consumers want helps because then both the consumers and the operators line up at your door to buy the product, ensuring that you can get economies of scale in manufacturing and distribution.

    The current strategy that Nokia is pursuing is to maintain high volumes by shipping more units into emerging markets (India etc) and by shaving margins on the devices. They also have not made a sufficient investment in their 3rd party community so the best developers largely don’t bother — in our recent survey ( http://scr.bi/aQqkGg ) 80% of developers are unhappy with how little they are making through OVI store.

    And as much as we want to bash Apple as hype – the customer and operators are lined up to purchase the products.

    Lets not keep making up facts to make ourselves feel better. A sea change has occurred in the mobile device market – these are becoming computing devices and currently computer companies, Apple and Google, are having a field day in producing products that exploit the new set of competitive advantages that come with being a general computing platform.

    If you want to make phone calls, Nokia is still a great device manufacturer. But I want a lot more from my mobile computing platform. Don’t you?

    • JFH
      July 25, 2010 at 11:47 am

      Of course Ted, but Nokia has Billions as well. Sea changes occur. What is interesting is to see what the next one is, and who is going to bring out devices that ride that wave (no pun intended). Your point about what the high end will look in 2015 is excellent. What about 2012/2013. Do you think it is going to be all about apps still? I strongly disagree with the general computing platform remark though.

    • Jack
      July 25, 2010 at 7:11 pm

      It was touted loud that Apple sold 1.7M iPhone 4 devices is three days. In three days, Nokia sells over 3M devices, and Samsung around 2 million devices. And that sales happens every day, all year round. They have economics of scale on their side. Apple does not have.

      It has been also reported that operators are making losses because of iPhone. And now with the antenna flaw, which hits directly operator bottom line, it is not an operator favorite device for sure. iPhone has fans, but it is becoming old. The sales is growing now only in the US.

      And yes, former phones are becoming computer devices. But for some reason, Apple still requires that you connect your phone to a computer before it is activated? Maybe Apple does not want to cannibalize its computer sales too fast? Sure, I am expecting more than that. Maybe N900 device from Nokia is better? Nokia was a computer maker 20 years ago, but that business was sold because mobile was far better opportunity.

      Google is more interesting new player, and obviously its success will depend on manufacturers performance and willingness to support Android. Most of the manufacturers are also supporting Windows, Symbian and other OSses. And they will continue to support multiple OSses to keep OS players on their toes.

      • George
        July 25, 2010 at 10:54 pm

        Jack :
        It was touted loud that Apple sold 1.7M iPhone 4 devices is three days. In three days, Nokia sells over 3M devices, and Samsung around 2 million devices. And that sales happens every day, all year round.

        Are you really comparing the performance of one product to an entire company’s lineup of phones? Really?

        It has been also reported that operators are making losses because of iPhone. And now with the antenna flaw, which hits directly operator bottom line

        Yeah, who wants to be part of a phone that sells in the millions and requires an expensive voice and data plan just to make it work. Losers.

        iPhone has fans, but it is becoming old. The sales is growing now only in the US.

        Their numbers above are that much more impressive because its for one country(so far) not the entire world like Nokia.

        And yes, former phones are becoming computer devices. But for some reason, Apple still requires that you connect your phone to a computer before it is activated?

        That’s one of the reasons I really like Android. Nokia is nowhere near that from what I can tell

        Maybe N900 device from Nokia is better?

        Wow, did you really just say that?

        Nokia was a computer maker 20 years ago, but that business was sold because mobile was far better opportunity.

        Apple market cap in the $200+Billions. Nokia $33B. Hmmm. Yeah, no one makes money in computers.

        Google is more interesting new player

        Here I totally agree. You can’t ignore Apple but Android is more like that of Nokia.

  20. JFH
    July 25, 2010 at 10:39 pm

    Unit numbers are down QoQ. Despite a product launch that usually pumps up these numbers. Again, not sure why you are trying to wiggle some other stuff in this, or make this into something else, but anything that has nothing to do with iPhone marketshare is irrelevant in this discussion here.

    I am however still waiting for the answer to my question at the end of my last response, in our “exchange of extremely long posts” a few feet of scrolling south.

    • JFH
      July 25, 2010 at 10:43 pm

      This post was for George, not sure why it ended up even more south than the south I mentioned in my post.

      • George
        July 25, 2010 at 11:10 pm

        You have to be careful with the comment system. I made the mistake a few times myself.

        It’s an interesting point but not relevant. Some quarters are naturally lower than others, there are cycles within the year when it comes to volume. YoY is more interesting. Apple also had an abnormally good Q1 because of non-US sales. Look at Tomi’s analysis. It freaked him out, so I’m not surprised that unit volume adjusted back to normal for Q2. Fact remains, nothing indicates there will be a YoY decline in future quarters.

        • JFH
          July 26, 2010 at 12:01 am

          False. We only need 2 more quarters like this for Q1 2011 to be less than Q1 2010. Again, its not going to make or break Apple, or be of vital importance to Nokia’s succes, but you are wrong. I know Tomi’s analysis. He predicted iPhone would drop sooner, but this was mitigated in part by a Chinese million.

          Still want an answer to my other question….

          • George
            July 26, 2010 at 1:35 am

            One quarter does not make a trend.

            If there’s anything I’ve learned from watching Apple in recent months is that they are unpredictable and more often than not have a way of beating expectations.

            I think its fair to say though that we can agree to disagree.

            At the end of the day I hope they both do well. An ecosystem with
            Apple, Google and Nokia means we the consumers win. I don’t know what that means for you as an application developer but as a consumer having the choice of three heavy hitters trying to outdo each other for the best in mobile technology is well, not a bad place to be.

        • JFH
          July 26, 2010 at 9:54 am

          Weird commenting system here:

          5.3B is not bad for 14% of one segment.

          > But irrelevant.

          I’m thinking of the modern notion of the touch interface.

          > So was I. Google it.

          That’s catchy. You don’t want the rights do you?

          > You can’t pluck feathers from a frog. Is that an expression in English as well?

          Except Google.

          > How much money is Google making from Android then, or their App store, or those huge quantities of Nexus 1 sales? Androids success is through HTC & Samsung. Nokia is the only one still doing hardware, software, content in a meaningful way, until we have Bada all grown up. Your answers are becoming shorter and shallower.

          I use the N900 so clearly am not the average user.

          > Which is why I quoted that back to you and why you equating bleeding edge tech with high end means dick all for the market and the general consumer.

          It is. The discussion was Maemo -> Harmattan -> MeeGo. Unless you can tell me that Meego will be forwards / backwards compatible with Harmattan and then with meeGo, I think that’s pretty much the end result. Feel free to enlighten me on the Maemo to MeeGo transition and how that is better than the iPhone 3 version upgrade situation.

          > Its not here now, again thanks for pointing out the obvious. My point was, today is not the end state of the changes Nokia is making. Yes we lose S60 apps as soon as S^4 is here, but Qt apps will work on all of the platforms from then on. We can’t update Maemo to MeeGo officially, but what matters is if we will be able to go from MeeGo 1.0 to 2.0 when the time comes.

          You still have the UI layer and incompatibilities between S^3 and S^4 and MeeGo. I can’t tell you if its better or worse. It’s different. At least Android can use tools like Eclips.

          > Its fine if you can’t tell me that, because I told you it is.

          BINGO. I get it now, you’re not a consumer. All you care about is volume of users. See, as a consumer I care about the ecosystem with more apps. You don’t like that because that’s competition for you. I see why we are on different sides. Makes sense.

          > You didn’t get anything. Everything I have said was from the perspective of a consumer, which I am, and I have repeatedly mentioned consumer in my reasoning. Only here in this last part I took another perspective as well.

          Hey now, put up or shut up. The few QT apps I’ve seen so far are disappointing at the least and ugly to boot, so let’s not start calling the kettle black unless you have proof to back up your claims.

          > How are you offended by me stating that Qt apps on S^3 S^4 & MeeGo will look better than shoddy java trinkets, like the stuff we see on S60?

          And how has that app market worked for the hundreds of millions of S60 based phones. That should be a strong indicator right?

          > It has worked to the point that Ovi store is more successful than the Android Market currently. I think the Ovi store hasn’t been particularly user friendly, nor have Nokia smartphone users been very aware of the store. The latest phones, and the new ones coming out, have a much better Ovi experience. Also, the N8 is the first in a long time with a proper GPU, so some real games can be developed for it (instead of shoddy stuff). I think the S^3 based devices will on average download more content from Ovi than he S60 devices.

          Sleeping at the wheel was a reference to them not seeing the shift in technology happen right in front of them. In many ways though its more about being able to execute rather than coming up with the perfect strategy.

          > What does that even mean? “them not seeing the shift in technology happen right in front of them”. That’s lunacy. Mobile Gaming, Touch screen devices, all that stuff Nokia was doing already. They were fully aware of all of those concepts. Apple comes out with a great device, that is a much better implementation of existing ideas, and then all of a sudden the rest of the world did not see a shift in technology. How is it a shift that you can see happen when it is instant? I agree they should have responded more quickly though.

          More importantly, and pivotal to our discussion, is this: “In many ways though its more about being able to execute rather than coming up with the perfect strategy”. After thousands of words dismissing their strategy, claiming they have none, claiming its wrong, claiming all kinds of things, after I explain why theirs is sensible, after I counter your claims, after I ask you to outline your own view, you say exactly nothing.

          Do me a favor, only respond to his if you really plan on doing some analysis of their strategy here yourself. I enjoy discussing this topic, but not if you only respond to half of the stuff I write or if you don’t propose what they could have done better, how their strategy will fail or succeed and why, and what part is execution and what part is vision. Again, I need to quote you: “put up or shut up”

          • George
            July 26, 2010 at 4:26 pm

            5.3B is not bad for 14% of one segment.
            > But irrelevant.

            Haha. Yeah, $5.3B in high-end smartphone revenue. Totally irrelevant in a discussion about being competitive in high-end smartphones

            > How much money is Google making from Android then, or their App store, or those huge quantities of Nexus 1 sales? Androids success is through HTC & Samsung. Nokia is the only one still doing hardware, software, content in a meaningful way, until we have Bada all grown up.

            Google has a different approach. They make money through search and ads. Android is their vehicle for doing that. Ultimately if that is successful I don’t know, but if they can make Billions out of silly text ads at the side of web pages my guess is they’ll figure out how to make money here.

            Your answers are becoming shorter and shallower.

            Lol. Yeah, these comments really need to get longer. You’re not tired of me repeating the same stuff yet? 😉

            > Its not here now, again thanks for pointing out the obvious. My point was, today is not the end state of the changes Nokia is making. Yes we lose S60 apps as soon as S^4 is here, but Qt apps will work on all of the platforms from then on. We can’t update Maemo to MeeGo officially, but what matters is if we will be able to go from MeeGo 1.0 to 2.0 when the time comes.

            Yeah, as an N900 consumer I should care about a platform that I doesn’t yet exist which might be upgradeable to a version that again won’t be supported on my phone. I’m so silly to care about my current phone and the fact that it has no upgradeability in the future besides minor updates.
            Are you sure you have your user hat on.

            Everything I have said was from the perspective of a consumer, which I am, and I have repeatedly mentioned consumer in my reasoning.

            So you like the Maemo strategy and transition to MeeGo. Wow, Nokia must lover consumers like you.

            > How are you offended by me stating that Qt apps on S^3 S^4 & MeeGo will look better than shoddy java trinkets, like the stuff we see on S60?

            My comment was probably harsher than it needed to be, sorry about that. My point again for the millionth time is that fanboys keep touting the past and the future. I used to believe in Nokia’s promises until I realized they DON’T deliver. So for now my stance is, show me the goods. Otherwise, I’ll leave you to your opinion because from what I see of current QT apps, if their parallel universe twin was submitted to the Apple App store, they’d get laughed out of town. I’m not saying it won’t or couldn’t be good. I just won’t believe it until I see it.

            > It has worked to the point that Ovi store is more successful than the Android Market currently. I think the Ovi store hasn’t been particularly user friendly,

            Haha, a bit of an understatement about not being user friendly. Do you have any numbers to show that the OVI store is more successful? Would love to see that.

            nor have Nokia smartphone users been very aware of the store.

            Hmm. How can it be more successful about the Android Marketplace if many don’t know about it. Just about EVERY Android user knows about their Marketplace, of my friends at least.

            I agree they should have responded more quickly though.

            I’m glad you agree with me. What you just stated is execution. So I’ll concede a point maybe they did see it coming but they sure didn’t respond like it.

            After thousands of words dismissing their strategy, claiming they have none, claiming its wrong, claiming all kinds of things, after I explain why theirs is sensible,

            Well, hindsight is 20/20 right? Was I too hyperbolic in saying they had NO strategy? Sure. Do I fundamentally disagree with their pace and what was their final strategy? Absolutely. What would I have done differently? I would have focused their product line faster and tried to do fewer things but better.
            Check out:
            http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/07/22/nokia_manifesto_risku/
            Like I said, lack of execution.

  21. JFH
    July 26, 2010 at 5:25 pm

    Great work, loads of broken record sounds from you again, and in the end, a link to someone else as you apparently have difficulty formulating what it would be you would do differently.

    “Haha. Yeah, $5.3B in high-end smartphone revenue. Totally irrelevant in a discussion about being competitive in high-end smartphones”

    Sigh. Silly you.

    “. You’re not tired of me repeating the same stuff yet? ;-)”

    Yes I am, for the life of me I cannot figure out how someone that takes the effort to respond, does it in such a myopic way.
    “Yeah, as an N900 consumer I should care about a platform that I doesn’t yet exist which might be upgradeable to a version that again won’t be supported on my phone. I’m so silly to care about my current phone and the fact that it has no upgradeability in the future besides minor updates.
    Are you sure you have your user hat on.”

    We were discussing end state. This is not the end state. No matter how disappointed you are now, that doesn’t say anything about their strategy.

  22. JFH
    July 26, 2010 at 5:38 pm

    “My comment was probably harsher than it needed to be, sorry about that. My point again for the millionth time is that fanboys keep touting the past and the future. I used to believe in Nokia’s promises until I realized they DON’T deliver. So for now my stance is, show me the goods.”

    This says it all really. The only thing that counts is now in strategy? And even better “my stance now is….” Those very words indicate you are skeptical and negative, and you lack the depth of insight to see why today is different from yesterday. All you manage to do are shallow extrapolations.

    “Haha, a bit of an understatement about not being user friendly. Do you have any numbers to show that the OVI store is more successful? Would love to see that.”

    Sure, number of downloads top 3. App Store, GetJar, Ovi. No Market in there.

    “Hmm. How can it be more successful about the Android Marketplace if many don’t know about it. Just about EVERY Android user knows about their Marketplace, of my friends at least.”

    Installed base. Even with the horrid experience, Nokia sells so many devices that the small percentage of users that can find the store make it a success. It proves the potential for an improved experience in Ovi.

    “So I’ll concede a point maybe they did see it coming but they sure didn’t respond like it.”

    I am happy you concede points when you think I concede as well. Very mature.:)

    “Do I fundamentally disagree with their pace and what was their final strategy?”

    Pace yes, but you do not understand their final strategy

    Since hindsight is indeed 20/20, I am asking you to look in the future. What do you think will happen. How does Nokia’s strategy fit in there. Will it be apps all the way in the next few years? Are we going to see spec driven wars, price wars? How would you use Nokia’s strong points and what would you do to improve their weak points. Do not give me a link to some other guys opinion. ( Which I know well)

    Lets just leave it this point, perhaps just answer my last question. This thread has become long enough 🙂

    • George
      July 26, 2010 at 6:08 pm

      Yes I am, for the life of me I cannot figure out how someone that takes the effort to respond, does it in such a myopic way.

      Haha. Yeah, I’m myopic for looking and trying to understand what is happening with competitors versus looking at one number and trying to justify my own narrative through it. Silly me.

      We were discussing end state. This is not the end state. No matter how disappointed you are now, that doesn’t say anything about their strategy.

      Here’s the disconnect. I’m talking about what I have as a customer. Isn’t it convenient to say. Don’t worry N900 users, your platform has no future but we’ll make sure the next one is fixed. The problem is that they’ve done that with the N810, N800 and N770. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different outcome (my simplistic definition). There is no reason for me to believe that after MeeGo there won’t be another shift for Nokia. Their track record proves it and they have made no statement to the contrary. You can want them to all you’d like but the facts don’t change.

      I’ve bought Nokia for 14 years and have been disappointed in recent years with their lack of execution. I won’t buy another Nokia devices in the near future. How does that strategy help me? Yes I’m myopic. I bought a phone that has no future. Should I be happy for Nokia?

      This says it all really. The only thing that counts is now in strategy?

      Let me try it again. The only thing that counts is execution

      And even better “my stance now is….” Those very words indicate you are skeptical and negative, and you lack the depth of insight to see why today is different from yesterday. All you manage to do are shallow extrapolations.

      BINGO. Because I used to be like you. I believed the hype. 14 years of Nokia devices. I almost bought the N97 and decided on the N900. I’m tired of promises.

      Sure, number of downloads top 3. App Store, GetJar, Ovi. No Market in there.

      That’s right. I forget, you don’t care about money. Maybe they’re still no. 3 in revenue. Can you show that too? As a developer shouldn’t you care about that? Maybe you’re the exception and are making a killing on the OVI store. I’m curious if they’ve been able to monetize all those downloads.

      I am asking you to look in the future. What do you think will happen.

      I have no idea. Some people are good at future visioning. I’m about execution. That’s what I’m discussing. Yes this thread is too long.

  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: